Who will win the World Cup?
With just under a week before Brazil take on Croatia in the 2014 World Cup opener at home, experts are beginning to refine their predictions of potential winners.
According to the bookmakers it looks like this: Brazil 3/1 Argentina 5/1 Germany 6/1 Spain 13/2.
The tournament has been held 19 times, but has only been won by 8 nations, so considering past winners seems tricky.
Let’s take a look at the top three and also a possible external opportunity.
Brazil
No team has a better World Cup record than Brazil, having played in all 19 tournaments, winning it five times. However, they are only ranked fourth in the world by FIFA. On the negative side, people point to the lack of competitive football for Felipe Scolari’s team, as they did not have to qualify to be the hosts. Others fear that the weight of expectations on the home team may prove to be too much at a vital time.
On the positive side of Neymar they have a world-class forward supported by the elegant Robinho and the speed of Dani Alves. Goalkeeper Julio Cesar brings confidence and organization to the defense
Verdict: Brazil will come closer as usual, but I think others have more complete teams.
Argentina
Coach Alejandro Sabella’s team is trying to win the tournament for the third time. They have competed in the finals fifteen times and are ranked 7th in FIFA. They were the top scorers in qualifying competition and only Columbia conceded fewer goals. His strength is in scoring goals and in Lionel Messi, Sergio Agüero, Gonzalo Higuaín and Angel Di María they have a range of options. Many say that Messi has found it difficult to reproduce his Barcelona form when he played for his country.
Verdict: When it comes to the big games, having the ability to score goals in knockout competition will always give the team an advantage. Messi has to get it right in this competition sooner or later. I have chosen Argentina
Germany
Germany has appeared in 17 tournaments winning 3 times and is ranked second in the world by FIFA. They were undefeated in the qualifying competition, winning 9 out of 10 matches and scoring 36 goals, more than any other team.
On the bright side, Germany has a good mix of youth and maturity with defenders like Philip Lahm and Bastian Schweinsteiger with over 100 matches each combined with the passing skills of Arsenal midfielder Mesut Ozil and the attacking power of Young Player from the 2010 World Cup of the Thomas Muller Tournament. Throw in a world-class keeper in the form of Manuel Neuer and it looks like you have an excellent shot.
On the downside, even coach Joachim Low admits there is still work to be done, especially on defense. Tying Sweden 4-4 at home when they led 4-0 suggests they may be prone to lacking concentration. Furthermore, no European country has won when the competition has been held in South America.
Verdict: I think they have a very good chance, but I think it will go to a South American team.
Chile: an alien possibility.
Chile has competed in 8 World Cup finals and is ranked 13th in the world according to FIFA. Their qualifying competition got off to a good start beating Bolivia and Venezuela away from home, but three consecutive defeats saw Argentine coach Claudio Borghi replaced by compatriot Jorge Sampoli. After losing his first game in charge, he won the next 5 and tied the remaining game. Their offensive playing style is reflected in the fact that only Argentina scored more goals in qualifying. However, Chile also conceded more goals than any other team and only drew one game.
There are some well-known European soccer players with Alexi Sánchez from Barcelona, Eduardo Vargas from Valencia and Arturo Vidal from Juventus. Wigan fans may recognize midfielder Jean Beausejour.
Verdict: They may not win, but it will be exciting to see them.
Wait, what about Spain?
They have appeared in 13 of the tournaments, they are the current champions as well as being European champions and are among the top ranked by FIFA.
My reason for opposing them is their low goal count. They only scored 14 in the ranking of the lowest number 25. Yes, they can keep possession, but in a knockout competition in South America I think they will have to tell Del Bosque that he will have to return the trophy.